train 4On Saturday and Sunday mornings I take my grandson to the Cherokee Freight Yards in Tulsa to see trains.  He likes trains and it gives grandma a chance to sleep in.  Some would argue that we go there for me and not him but that is a subject for another time.  The point is both of us like watching trains and it is great bonding time.  The pictures on the Blog are from this mornings trip.  As much as I would like to talk about trains here, what I really want to talk about is the economy.

When you hear in the media about top economist predictions on the economy they always refer to leading economic indicators.  “Leading economic indicators”?  I always wonder what these are.  Why don’t they just tell us what they are?  Are they too complicated for my lesser educated mind?  Are they so simple if they would tell us we would realize they really don’t have a clue either?  What are these leading economic indicators they speak of?  Most of the time I think the only indicator we need to look at is what the media is saying.  It really doesn’t matter if there is any substance to their claims.  We react to their stories like lemmings, and through our actions make their predictions reality.  What we need is a new, relevant way to predict the economy that everyone can understand.


train 3

So what does this have to do with trains?  Here, in this Blog I will introduce you to my revolutionary economic forecasting theory, “The Choo Choo Theory”.  The Choo Choo theory requires intense observation and analysis of specific inputs to accurately predict the economy.  It requires common sense ( an ability lost on intellectuals).  The Choo Choo Theory’s leading and ONLY economic indicator is based on the train traffic at the freight yards.  That’s it.  The only “leading economic indicator is the number of trains at the freight yard.

train 2


I mentioned that I watch trains every week with my grandson.  For several months we saw few trains going in and out of the yard.  No traffic.  Think about it.  What do these trains carry; food, trailers with goods from around the globe, petroleum products, steel and wood for building, heavy equipment, petroleum products, grain, cars, drill pipe for oil wells and on and on and on.  All of the goods that fuel our economy travel on the rails.  For months, with a flat economy, no trains.  No goods to be bought, no materials to build, no cars to buy, no drill pipe to sink new wells.  The economy is flat and no one is buying.

train 6

I am happy to report, based on The Choo Choo Theories leading economic indicator that the economy is making a positive turn.  The past two weeks we have seen trains going every direction. Trains passing one another three wide.  Trains everywhere! I have observed trains stretching forever with container trailers with imported goods, flat cars loaded with lumber and steel to build new structures. tankers with petroleum products to make plastics and build roads. cars stacked with drill pipes for new oil wells.  I have personally watched the economy in action and there was plenty of action to see.




Sooo… according to America’s newest, self-proclaimed, leading economist, Me, things are GOOD.  Go ahead and spend, invest and be confident.  The rails are buzzing with activity to drive our economy.

Now if you’ll excuse me, my grandson and I have more economic analysis to do

Just saying…..

Todd Pfeifer


About Ebsco Spring Company

Ebsco Spring Company manufactures precision springs. Ebsco Spring was established in 1941 in Tulsa Oklahoma. Ebsco Spring manufactures custom springs for a wide variety of industries including fluid power, oil and gas, aerospace, defense, medical and others.

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